Joan Barceló · American Political Science Review · 26 November 2025
Understanding the legacies of wartime violence is essential for explaining postwar dynamics and informing policy. I present a meta-analysis of 172 quantitative studies across more than 50 countries, assessing the effects of wartime violence on 22 outcomes spanning four broad areas: (a) civic and political engagement, prosociality, and trust; (b) attitudinal hardening toward wartime enemies; (c) identification with one’s own wartime-aligned group; and (d) generalized attitudinal hardening. The analysis reveals mixed effects on engagement, prosociality, and trust: while violence increases some forms of participation, it does not promote voting, trust, or altruism. In contrast, wartime violence consistently heightens hostility toward former adversaries and strengthens in-group identification and favoritism. However, I find little evidence of broader hardening toward actors not directly involved in the conflict. These results challenge optimistic claims that war fosters cohesion and underscore the need for interventions that reduce intergroup hostility, rebuild cross group-trust, and support reconciliation.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055425101299
Genevieve Bates · American Political Science Review · 21 November 2025
Does International Criminal Court (ICC) involvement affect the agreements parties to a civil conflict make, especially regarding matters of accountability? In this article, I argue that the ICC places a unique pressure on domestic elites negotiating peace in the wake of political violence. To avoid going to trial in the international arena, elites facing the threat of punishment have an incentive to agree to implement some form of domestic accountability, showing the Court that they can handle their own business. I evaluate my argument using data on the content of peace agreements negotiated between 2002 and 2019. I find that ICC involvement increases the probability that negotiators commit to accountability during peace processes. To explore potential mechanisms and more explicitly evaluate alternative explanations, I draw on case studies from Colombia and Sudan.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055425101317